Bird Flu Vaccine

http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5214776.stm

Even though the results have yet to be published, it's at least good news to hear that there are two drug companies close to creating one.

Bird flu is scary but the media is more scary D

Bird flu will never pass the human-human barrier. My guess, albeit not the biggest expert one, is that the virus, if it EVER mutates so that humans can transmit to humans, it will mutate to the point where it also is more mild, and is more survivable than the 50% rate.

It's funny...flu vaccines are generally created in chicken eggs, this attenuates the virus, making it weak. The bird flu (H5N1) affects chickens, so it actually gets stronger (or stays the same) when placed in chicken eggs. This is the big hurdle for this vaccine and whatever turns up will be interesting.

well, if it the mortality is 10% and it spreads across the whole world...the death toll would be 663 million
current population is around 6.6 billion
i agree that this is blown of of proportion. we are due for an influenza pandemic but it likely will not come from bird flu.

to acheive that 663 million figure, then EVERY person on earth would have to contract H5N1 or a related subtype therein.

But yeh, it's media sensationalism. We did extensive research on this in Microbiology (yeah, just a college class but still...20+ review articles read per person...) It has the potenial to be bad, but probably never will be.

The current mortality rate is 50%, and that is a direct statistic. out of the people who got it, 50% of reported cases died. This is also coming out of underdeveloped countries, and overcrowded nations. No H5N1 has spread to the US, yet.

The MORBIDITY (this isn't mortality) rate is quite low, however, and something not to be too fearful about. It's a hard disease to catch, as it sits LOW in the human lungs (beyond what you can cough up). Catching it from a chicken (and swine....it's believed that this is a potential mixing vessel) is difficult, but possible. This disease holds a very low threat to the human race now.

Now, the swine mixing vessel....imagine taking the H5N1 subtype and a different subtype that is transmissable human to human. Bacteria and viruses have the tendency to spontaneously transform DNA (forgot who proved this in a historical experiment)...if a pig or some sort of swine were to get H5N1 and a common human-swine subtype, it's conceivable that they two could mix and get
a.) another dumb easily cured flu
b.) Bird Flu that's transmissable from human to human.
c.) a pig that will ultimately take over the world with new superpowers.

I couldn't begin to evaluate the probability of what the next step in bird flu is, but I know some of the options.

i don't think that the influenza virus is capable of transferring or absorbing dna to or from its surroundings. the theory that says such is not highly supported, though it is possible )

http//www.pandemicflu.gov/images/pop_image.jpg[" alt=""/img9e18711203]
it is not here but it is coming.

[quoteeca282d590="jy3"]i don't think that the influenza virus is capable of transferring or absorbing dna to or from its surroundings. the theory that says such is not highly supported, though it is possible )

http//www.pandemicflu.gov/images/pop_image.jpg[" alt=""/imgeca282d590]
it is not here but it is coming.[/quoteeca282d590]

Yes, viruses in general are capable of transformation. This was demonstrated at least in bacteria by Avery-McCleod's experiment.

Next, H5N1 is an RNA virus, meaning that it only has RNA, which means

1.) It can more easily break apart, and get errors, as RNA does not have the error checking mechanisms DNA has.
2.) It easily reproduces because there's no need to unzip it because it's already single stranded.

Now, using the lytic cycle model of a virus's lifespan, you have a virus infect a cell, first it attaches on the outside (absorption) then it injects its genetic material (penetration) then this DNA stays together, but can break apart and recombine with the host DNA. In fact, it makes copies with the host DNA, assembles new virions and eventually explodes the host.

The fact that you could have this happen on the same cell simultaneously with 2 different flu subtypes has shown evidence of spontaneous transformation with a new subtype being formed, and it's not just possible, it's actually probable and common IF a mixing vessel (the swine) were to be infected by both subtypes.

and in addition, that's the CDC map, right? if not, it's the WHO map...anyway, I don't like how they illustrate that because entire countries are highlighted, not regions, so if they had one chicken in Moscow that was infected, it would show up as being all over Russia, INCLUDING right next to the bering strait, suggesting that Alaska was next. This is not true. Chickens are quite low in population in that north eastern region of Russia, I would think.

The CDC map of world migratory patterns of birds is better. There are 1 or 2 flight patterns (one is a quail, and i think the other is a goose) that "contaminate" the US. This is the biggest current cause for concern.

[quote148147d855="nobody2000"][quote148147d855="jy3"]i don't think that the influenza virus is capable of transferring or absorbing dna to or from its surroundings. the theory that says such is not highly supported, though it is possible )

http//www.pandemicflu.gov/images/pop_image.jpg[" alt=""/img148147d855]
it is not here but it is coming.[/quote148147d855]

Yes, viruses in general are capable of transformation. This was demonstrated at least in bacteria by Avery-McCleod's experiment.

Next, H5N1 is an RNA virus, meaning that it only has RNA, which means

1.) It can more easily break apart, and get errors, as RNA does not have the error checking mechanisms DNA has.
2.) It easily reproduces because there's no need to unzip it because it's already single stranded.

Now, using the lytic cycle model of a virus's lifespan, you have a virus infect a cell, first it attaches on the outside (absorption) then it injects its genetic material (penetration) then this DNA stays together, but can break apart and recombine with the host DNA. In fact, it makes copies with the host DNA, assembles new virions and eventually explodes the host.

The fact that you could have this happen on the same cell simultaneously with 2 different flu subtypes has shown evidence of spontaneous transformation with a new subtype being formed, and it's not just possible, it's actually probable and common IF a mixing vessel (the swine) were to be infected by both subtypes.[/quote148147d855]


i love how syria surrounded by countries w/ flu but it doesnt have it itself

D