Who has read about peak oil?

Jake posted this link here in a previous thread and I think its something everyone needs to read. It's really fucking scary to me but the author seems to have his facts in line. Did anyone else here read it already? What do you guys think? If you haven't read it, do it now, once you read the first few sections it'll draw you in and make you want to finish it.

It's a higher reading level though, some of you younger teens might have a hard time with it.

http//www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

is anybody reading this? i'm looking for some discussion that might make others read it.

yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.

[quote762f50c8d1="theysayjump"]yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.[/quote762f50c8d1]

yeah coz they dunno how to deal with alotta things, they just throw money at the problems w/out actually thinking about it... like the shuttle they lauched... the previous one had the same problem... so they went ahead and invested 1 year + 1 billion dollars in "research" to fix the problem so it would never happen again, well guess what, it happened again... does that mean we wasted 1billion dollars and a years worth of research for this shit to happen again? fucking retards...

P.S. i'll get to readin the article, not now tho.

[quote064554ce68="xXHasek99"][quote064554ce68="theysayjump"]yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.[/quote064554ce68]

yeah coz they dunno how to deal with alotta things, they just throw money at the problems w/out actually thinking about it... like the shuttle they lauched... the previous one had the same problem... so they went ahead and invested 1 year + 1 billion dollars in "research" to fix the problem so it would never happen again, well guess what, it happened again... does that mean we wasted 1billion dollars and a years worth of research for this shit to happen again? fucking retards...

P.S. i'll get to readin the article, not now tho.[/quote064554ce68]

....

[quote6dec44ba02="Collateral"][quote6dec44ba02="xXHasek99"][quote6dec44ba02="theysayjump"]yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.[/quote6dec44ba02]

yeah coz they dunno how to deal with alotta things, they just throw money at the problems w/out actually thinking about it... like the shuttle they lauched... the previous one had the same problem... so they went ahead and invested 1 year + 1 billion dollars in "research" to fix the problem so it would never happen again, well guess what, it happened again... does that mean we wasted 1billion dollars and a years worth of research for this shit to happen again? fucking retards...

P.S. i'll get to readin the article, not now tho.[/quote6dec44ba02]

....[/quote6dec44ba02]

I thought you went to bed...

economy...

[quotee4c113a259="bballp6699"][quotee4c113a259="Collateral"][quotee4c113a259="xXHasek99"][quotee4c113a259="theysayjump"]yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.[/quotee4c113a259]

yeah coz they dunno how to deal with alotta things, they just throw money at the problems w/out actually thinking about it... like the shuttle they lauched...

P.S. i'll get to readin the article, not now tho.[/quotee4c113a259]

....[/quotee4c113a259]

I thought you went to bed...[/quotee4c113a259]

I almost did but then Elimidate popped on with some dude from the old Big Brother and I had to watch it.

[quote33a372d37d="Collateral"][quote33a372d37d="bballp6699"][quote33a372d37d="Collateral"][quote33a372d37d="xXHasek99"][quote33a372d37d="theysayjump"]yeah im reading it, i read some of it when Jake posted it also.

i read on the BBC last year sometime, someones blog or something, said that the USA's decline wont come from terrorists, or wars or enemies, but from their economy failing, partly because of their dependancy on oil.[/quote33a372d37d]

yeah coz they dunno how to deal with alotta things, they just throw money at the problems w/out actually thinking about it... like the shuttle they lauched...

P.S. i'll get to readin the article, not now tho.[/quote33a372d37d]

....[/quote33a372d37d]

I thought you went to bed...[/quote33a372d37d]

I almost did but then Elimidate popped on with some dude from the old Big Brother and I had to watch it.[/quote33a372d37d]

stop spying on Collateral... just coz his light are off don't mean he's sleepin, m'kay.. lol

this is some scary shit.......im surprised at how ignorant i was to the role that oil has on everyday life.......and im only 2/3rds of the way down on page 1.......page 2 though..........alternatives D

I just read/skimmed through the entire thing, and it seems that it is almost impossible for us to remedy the situation.

Although there is some good information on this site, the guy is sensationalizing things to sell books/dvds. Some of the sources are good, some of them are crap. Sometimes, he'll take sources out of context and use it to prove a point the source doesn't support. There are tons of analysts in the financial markets studying oil (a lot of money is riding on it so you know they're busting their asses too), and he talks about the concept of the peaking of supplies like it's a big fucking secret that they (analysts) don't know about since it's not on the mainstream press. When I read that part I saw right through him. Does he think crude oil futures prices are determined arbitrarily by guys that have no knowledge of the oil market? His use of Jevons Paradox was kinda weak too. The last part (wars, etc...) just gets into conspiracy stuff I thought.

Nothing can go on forever, and the same goes for the global supply of oil. China's gonna be taking it in like there's no tomorrow (like the US does) to make things worse. Their crazy consumption of steel brought prices up in the recent past. I think what's worse is what'll happen to the US economy as interest rates go up and people finally stop borrowing to consume (also mentioned in one of the website's sources). Anyway, it's late so I'm stopping here. The concept is real but this guy is painting an overly grim picture IMO.

[quoted42d5c0d19="Batman"]I just read/skimmed through the entire thing, and it seems that it is almost impossible for us to remedy the situation.[/quoted42d5c0d19]


We need a new energy source.. like ... kryptonite or something.

We are sooooo fucked. We need some of that free energy like in the movie The Saint. We might as well grab out ankles now.

[quoted2bb76758c="hehehhehe"]Although there is some good information on this site, the guy is sensationalizing things to sell books/dvds. Some of the sources are good, some of them are crap. Sometimes, he'll take sources out of context and use it to prove a point the source doesn't support. There are tons of analysts in the financial markets studying oil (a lot of money is riding on it so you know they're busting their asses too), and he talks about the concept of the peaking of supplies like it's a big fucking secret that they (analysts) don't know about since it's not on the mainstream press. When I read that part I saw right through him. Does he think crude oil futures prices are determined arbitrarily by guys that have no knowledge of the oil market? His use of Jevons Paradox was kinda weak too. The last part (wars, etc...) just gets into conspiracy stuff I thought.

Nothing can go on forever, and the same goes for the global supply of oil. China's gonna be taking it in like there's no tomorrow (like the US does) to make things worse. Their crazy consumption of steel brought prices up in the recent past. I think what's worse is what'll happen to the US economy as interest rates go up and people finally stop borrowing to consume (also mentioned in one of the website's sources). Anyway, it's late so I'm stopping here. The concept is real but this guy is painting an overly grim picture IMO.[/quoted2bb76758c]

I noticed the sensationalism as well. He does make it seem like more of a secret than it is. BBC did an article on Peak Oil a couple months ago using a variety of sources. They came to the conclusion that nobody knows exactly when it's going to happen, and when it does nobody knows exactly what is going to happen.

I for one would like to see the price of oil increased to put gas around the 4-5.00 a gallon level. It would be just enough to make us take drastic action and to stop people from driving unnecessarily large / fuel inefficient vehicles.

[quote12337e8bfe="slease"]I noticed the sensationalism as well. He does make it seem like more of a secret than it is. BBC did an article on Peak Oil a couple months ago using a variety of sources. They came to the conclusion that nobody knows exactly when it's going to happen, and when it does nobody knows exactly what is going to happen.

I for one would like to see the price of oil increased to put gas around the 4-5.00 a gallon level. It would be just enough to make us take drastic action and to stop people from driving unnecessarily large / fuel inefficient vehicles.[/quote12337e8bfe]
I agree with the BBC's assessment that nobody knows, and guys like this just exaggerate and make people panic (see some responses in this thread). People that really do give a shit are working on alternatives like solar/hydro/wind power, hybrids, and fuel cells instead of writing books and creating slightly outlandish web pages to sell them.

Although I think that taxes could reduce consumption, the problem with increasing prices is that a lot of businesses will suffer, along with everybody else since everything will become more expensive. And while the US consumes less, China will be guzzling it up anyway...

We have hundreds of years of oil not 40 |

Ive read it and it scares the crap out of me as well. All of you admit that oil will run out eventually. I think its more reality than scare tactics. If you followed one of the links from his sites

http//www.museletter.com/archive/149.html

he clearly states that the Us economy is dependant on cheap oil. All the debt that our country has taken is on the presumption that gas prices will alwaysa be cheap. In that link the author discusses how Ameica and Saudi Arabia created a pact where SA would be able to nationalize their oil in exchange that all oil sales worldwide be done with US dollars. The story is very convuluted but basically our economy and debt is staying afloat because of this special relationship of dollasr for oil. Its what keeps American currency so strong. Any slip in American cureency and with these oil producing nations breaking the pact and switching to another currency such as the Euro would cripple the American economy.

I dont think this guy acts likes hes a discovere of this coverup. He obviously has a long range of sources with credible infromation. And he doesnt just ignore his critics counter arguments. In fact he seems to adress and rebut all of them with credence. How is America going to survive without its dependance on oil? Every alternative method was discussed and pretty much eliminated as a viable alternative. Best hope is to pray and hope oil will reproduce itself or else where on a downhill slope now.

heres some quotes


By May 1971 even the Bank of England was demanding gold for dollars, and the drain on US reserves had become intolerable. Nixon did the only thing he could under the circumstances he abandoned the Gold Exchange program altogether, and in August of that year a system of floating currencies was instituted. Engdahl again

The break with gold opened the door to an entirely new phase of the American Century. In this new phase, control over monetary policy was, in effect, privatized, with large international banks such as Citibank, Chase Manhattan or Barclays Bank assuming the role that central banks had in a gold system, but entirely without gold. "Market forces" now could determine the dollar. And they did with a vengeance.

In 1973, with the dollar now floating freely, the Arab nations of OPEC embargoed oil exports to the US in retaliation for American support for Israel in the Ramadan/Yom Kippur War. By this time it was clear that US oil production had peaked and was in permanent decline, and that America would become ever more dependent upon petroleum imports. As oil prices soared 400%, the US economy took a nose-dive.

The US and Saudi Arabia had formed a cooperative partnership in 1945, following meetings between FDR and King Ibn Saud. US oil companies (Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, and Texaco) were already controlling Saudi discovery and production through a partnership with the Kingdom, the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco). In 1973, the Saudi Government increased its partner's share in the company to 25%, and then 60% the next year. In 1980, the Saudi government retroactively gained full ownership of Aramco with financial effect as of 1976.

At about the same time this was happening (1975), the Saudis agreed to export their oil for US dollars exclusively. Soon OPEC as a whole adopted the rule. Now, as a result, the dollar was backed not by gold but, in effect, by oil.[/size13626a7919][/color13626a7919] Had the US permitted the Saudis to nationalize their oil industry in return for this extraordinary favor? Because the Saudi royal family and the oil companies are all notoriously tight-lipped, we may never know.

In any case, the oil shock created enormously increased demand for the floating dollar. Oil importing countries, including Germany and Japan, were faced with the problem of how to earn or borrow dollars with which to pay their ballooning fuel bills. Meanwhile, OPEC oil countries were inundated with oil dollars. Many of these oil dollars ended up in accounts in London and New York banks, where a new process - which Henry Kissinger dubbed "recycling petrodollars" - was instituted.

The process worked like this. OPEC countries were receiving billions of dollars they could not immediately use. When American and British banks took these dollars in deposit, they were thereby presented with the opportunity for writing more loans (banks make their profits primarily from loans, but they can only write loans if they have deposits to cover a certain percentage of the loan-usually 10% to 15%, depending on the current fractional reserve requirements issued by the Fed or Bank of England). Since the economies of industrialized nations were in no position to take on much new debt, the banks were faced with a problem to whom could they loan a boatload of new petrodollar-based money? Kissinger, an advisor to David Rockefeller of Chase Manhattan Bank, suggested the bankers use OPEC dollars as a reserve base upon which to aggressively "sell" bonds or loans, not to US or British corporations and investors, but to Third World countries desperate to borrow dollars with which to pay for oil imports. By the late 1970s these petrodollar debts had laid the basis for the Third World debt crisis of the 1980s (after interest rates exploded). Most of that debt is still in place and is still strangling many of the poorer nations. Hundreds of billions of dollars were recycled in this fashion. (Incidentally, the borrowed money usually found its way back to Western corporations or banks in any event, either by way of contracts with Western construction companies or simple theft on the part of indigenous officials with foreign bank accounts.)

To understand why the dollar is America's Achilles heel, a metaphor is useful. Imagine being able to write checks and then convince the people you give them to not to cash them. Perhaps they find the checks themselves comforting to hold onto; or maybe you have a friend who agrees to sell groceries or gasoline for your checks only, and then happily stockpiles and re-circulates them. In either case, you may be tempted to write checks for much more than you have in your bank account. As long as the checks themselves are regarded as valuable and not cashed, you get a free ride. But if people stop finding your checks comforting to hold onto, or if your friend starts selling groceries for other people's checks or for gold or silver, then the game is up. It will be revealed that your account is overdrawn and you will be in trouble.[/size13626a7919][/color13626a7919]

The economy part seems absolutely real, but the question is, will the other side of Peak oil resemble a bell curve or a declining line. Analysts seem to be at odds over this.

That "dollar is backed by oil" statement is used by a lot of people (it used exactly in the same way, so everybody is basically copying each other with seemingly no sole source, which by itself brings credibility problems), and although there is some truth to it, it isn't quite accurate considering how complex the global financial markets are. The fact that is is no longer pegged to gold had nothing to do with oil afaik. If you want to read a real research paper, it'd look more like this http//www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp[]http//www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp (it will bring up this concept of a oil-backed dollar prevalent on many of these websites, but not in academic research)

Notice that the sources are from real business journals/newspapers and not simple websites (which anyone can put up), and research from real academic institutions like UCal-Berkeley and leading investment banks (direct research, not hearsay). Also notice the tone, which is calmer.

The guy who runs museletter.com is a faculty member of New College of California, which provides "Education for a Just, Sacred, and Sustainable World" lol. Ding ding ding! Does this ring a bell in any critical thinker's head? He is probably a buddy of the guy who wrote the original web page in question, as his book is also prominently displayed on his website. They are basically of the same position. Yet, the fact that he is a "source" makes him credible? And the last paragraph you highlighted is basic economic concept (don't spend more than you have or you'll get in trouble - duh), inflated into a large paragraph. In any case, of course a country's currency is important to the country roll .

Seriously, compare the sources from this web page, and compare it to other academic research papers covering economics or financial topics. I'm not saying that the world is not going to eventually run out of oil, I just don't like these authors that try to shock to sell. The author of museletter sells email subscriptions and his books (I think I saw something where he suggested people go to the library to read instead of buying... if he was being sincere, he'd put his book online). Why doesn't he at least give email subscriptions for free? The costs are marginal.

Anyway, I didn't really want to get into that. If you feel his sources are credible and his web page is "serious", fine. I thought some were good, like I said. We are entitled to our opinions. What I really wanted to post was the following link. It is the solution we've been searching for...

http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0818_050818_urinebattery.html[]http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0818_050818_urinebattery.html

[quote0733abb1d3="hehehhehe"]That "dollar is backed by oil" statement is used by a lot of people (it used exactly in the same way, so everybody is basically copying each other with seemingly no sole source, which by itself brings credibility problems), and although there is some truth to it, it isn't quite accurate considering how complex the global financial markets are. The fact that is is no longer pegged to gold had nothing to do with oil afaik. If you want to read a real research paper, it'd look more like this http//www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp[]http//www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp (it will bring up this concept of a oil-backed dollar prevalent on many of these websites, but not in academic research)

Notice that the sources are from real business journals/newspapers and not simple websites (which anyone can put up), and research from real academic institutions like UCal-Berkeley and leading investment banks (direct research, not hearsay). Also notice the tone, which is calmer.

The guy who runs museletter.com is a faculty member of New College of California, which provides "Education for a Just, Sacred, and Sustainable World" lol. Ding ding ding! Does this ring a bell in any critical thinker's head? He is probably a buddy of the guy who wrote the original web page in question, as his book is also prominently displayed on his website. They are basically of the same position. Yet, the fact that he is a "source" makes him credible? And the last paragraph you highlighted is basic economic concept (don't spend more than you have or you'll get in trouble - duh), inflated into a large paragraph. In any case, of course a country's currency is important to the country roll .

Seriously, compare the sources from this web page, and compare it to other academic research papers covering economics or financial topics. I'm not saying that the world is not going to eventually run out of oil, I just don't like these authors that try to shock to sell. The author of museletter sells email subscriptions and his books (I think I saw something where he suggested people go to the library to read instead of buying... if he was being sincere, he'd put his book online). Why doesn't he at least give email subscriptions for free? The costs are marginal.

Anyway, I didn't really want to get into that. If you feel his sources are credible and his web page is "serious", fine. I thought some were good, like I said. We are entitled to our opinions. What I really wanted to post was the following link. It is the solution we've been searching for...

http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0818_050818_urinebattery.html[]http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0818_050818_urinebattery.html[/quote0733abb1d3]

Interesting read. Just started reading through the first link you gave on the navy site. Should set for good reading. You just filled out my next few hours . thx )

Ill get back to you once Im done reading.

I agree with the fact that the peak oil sites may be sensationalized a little bit but the fact remains that oil WILL run out one day and we are far from ready for that.

One simple fact which puts this all into perspective

It takes 10 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of energy from food. That is ridiculous....

The average meal travels 1500 miles in the US and in Canada, the number is supposedly 5000.

That is even more ridiculous.

The article about Urine Batteries is cool though.

If anyone wants some interesting articles about energy use, read some Ivan Illich. Energy and Equity is a classic...

[quote7e73ce7311="Jake"]The article about Urine Batteries is cool though. [/quote7e73ce7311]

Yea, I was reading about that and we had a crazy discussion on these other forums about it. If this idea works and works well then it can help a lot of people in many different ways.

I did a report on Peak Oil for my PIG final..i think its pretty crazy what this guy is saying..he seems to cover everything really well

[quote86254af3d2="Jake"]
It takes 10 calories of energy to produce 1 calorie of energy from food. That is ridiculous....[/quote86254af3d2]

Do you think that includes solar energy? Fertilizer is not a necessity in most parts of the US and with genetically engineered crops I don't think pesticides are as important either. The real energy hog is the actual farming/tilling/picking and irrigation. Not to mention the transportation of the food to your plate. This could be helped with better technology and a better national train system.

[quote8fd60d85aa="slease"]
Do you think that includes solar energy? Fertilizer is not a necessity in most parts of the US and with genetically engineered crops I don't think pesticides are as important either. The real energy hog is the actual farming/tilling/picking and irrigation. Not to mention the transportation of the food to your plate. This could be helped with better technology and a better national train system.[/quote8fd60d85aa]

I do not believe it includes solar energy. What they mean by this statistic is the irrigation, farming operations, packaging and transportation.